Overview

In late 2023, Miller Research was commissioned by the Welsh Government to assess the climate resilience of Wales’ food and drink system. The project was designed to inform the development of a new five-year national climate adaptation plan, with a particular focus on food security in the context of escalating climate risks.

This work responded directly to findings from the Climate Change Committee’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment, which identified food security as a critical and growing concern across the UK.

Our Approach

We adopted a holistic, systems-based methodology, combining robust evidence review with extensive stakeholder engagement.

Our approach included:

• A comprehensive review of over 140 academic, policy and industry sources
• A rapid evidence survey to gather system-wide insights
• 22 in-depth stakeholder interviews across public, private, academic and third sectors
• A series of co-creative workshops to validate findings and shape future scenarios

This mixed-method approach ensured that the research captured both the structural dynamics of the food system and the lived experience of those operating within it.

Key Findings

The research identified that Wales’ food system is highly interconnected with UK and global supply chains, making it particularly vulnerable to climate-related shocks such as:

• Extreme weather events
• Supply chain disruption
• Rising input costs and market volatility
• Water stress and changing agricultural conditions

While Wales benefits from strong community food networks, high-quality production, and a supportive policy environment, significant vulnerabilities remain. These include reliance on imports, fragmentation in policy and governance, and limited coordination across the system.

The study also highlighted that food insecurity is already a pressing issue, with around one in five adults in Wales experiencing food insecurity in recent years.

Impact and Outcomes

Miller Research produced a comprehensive baseline assessment of the Welsh food system, including a detailed SWOT analysis and a set of actionable, systems-based recommendations.

Key recommendations included:

• Developing a cohesive national food strategy
• Strengthening local and regional supply chains
• Investing in climate-resilient agriculture and infrastructure
• Enhancing collaboration across stakeholders
• Integrating food policy with wider social and climate objectives

The project also set out a long-term vision for a resilient Welsh food system, one that is sustainable, equitable, and capable of withstanding future climate shocks.

Legacy

This research is directly informing Welsh Government’s climate adaptation planning and food policy development. It provides a critical evidence base to support a transition towards a more resilient, sustainable, and secure food system for Wales.