Background

In 2025, Welsh Government commissioned Miller Research to undertake a scoping study to inform the future evaluation of Wales Innovates, the national Innovation Strategy for Wales. The Strategy sets out a mission-based approach to creating a stronger, fairer and greener Wales through innovation across four key areas: Education, Economy, Health and Wellbeing, and Climate and Nature.

Given the breadth and complexity of the Strategy, the study focused on understanding how progress could realistically and proportionately be evaluated over time, including planned Year 3 and Year 5 evaluations.

Methodology

The project combined desk-based research with extensive stakeholder engagement across the Welsh innovation ecosystem. This included:

• a targeted literature review on innovation systems, mission-led policy and evaluation approaches
• interviews, workshops and surveys with Welsh Government officials and delivery partners
• development of an overarching Theory of Change alongside four mission-level Theories of Change
• a detailed review of available datasets and evidence sources
• appraisal of scalable evaluation approaches to assess feasibility, proportionality and usefulness.

The research explored not only what evidence currently exists, but also how innovation-related change happens in practice across complex systems involving government, academia, business and communities.

Findings

The study found that evaluating innovation policy presents significant challenges, particularly where outcomes emerge over long timescales and are shaped by multiple external factors. Across the four mission areas, the evidence base was generally stronger for monitoring activity and investment than for measuring long-term outcomes and impacts.

The research highlighted that early signs of progress are more likely to be seen through:

• stronger collaboration and coordination
• increased confidence and capability to innovate
• improved alignment between organisations and policy priorities.

The project also identified major differences in data readiness across the missions, requiring a flexible and proportionate evaluation approach rather than a single uniform model.

Impact

The study provided Welsh Government with a practical framework for evaluating the Innovation Strategy over time. It recommended a mixed-method, theory-based approach combining strategic monitoring, case studies and targeted in-depth evaluation where evidence and delivery arrangements are more mature.

The work established a shared understanding of how the Strategy is expected to create change across Wales and created a foundation for future learning, accountability and continuous improvement within the Welsh innovation system.