The Welsh Government commissioned Miller Research in 2023 to develop an approach to understanding and mapping the potential impacts of climate change mitigation in Wales.  

Miller Research conducted a deep literature review of academic and grey literature to understand existing approaches drawing from organisations such as the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.  

The research adopted a broad definition of Just Transition that accounted for the potential effects of climate change mitigation on communities as well as workplaces. This led to the development of a Just Transition Index which included ten factors which may impact a person’s vulnerability to climate change mitigation, these were: 

• High emission job density (whether the area they live in is more reliant on high emission jobs than other areas) 

• Financial security 

• Skills and education 

• Economic environment 

• Social capital 

• Connectivity 

• Housing 

• Urban-rural 

• Mobility 

• Dependents 

Using these factors we identified indicators that would all these vulnerabilities to be mapped. We used publicly available data to map this vulnerability at the local authority level as an example of how the approach can support decision makers.  

During the project we recognised that climate change mitigation is a policy goal that utilises a range of levers across a variety of sectors. To adjust for this we developed four scenarios and adapted the index by including additional factors, or adjusting the weighting for factors, to take account of the specifics of each scenario. These scenarios were: 

• The shift to electric vehicles (EV scenario) 

• The shift to active travel and public transport (modal shift scenario) 

• Increases in retrofitting domestic properties (retrofit scenario) 

• Closure of industries (employment scenario) 

In order to test our assumptions about a persons response to these scenarios, and the factors that impact their vulnerability, we held workshops organised with the Building Communities Trust where people told us what might impact their response.  

During this process we learned that if decision makers are to use tools such as this to better understand the potential impact of policies more data points are needed, and they are needed at a more granular level than local authority. We identified that while tools like this can be useful for guiding thinking, it is the work that went into reviewing the evidence which really shaped how we think about policies, the index was just a representation of our thinking. Therefore, while the project resulted in a useful tool to help understand vulnerability to climate change mitigation, it did not result in a stand alone approach, mostly because the most valuable approach is to read the evidence about the specific decision, speak to the people it will affect, and work with them to identify solutions.  

 

https://www.gov.wales/understanding-just-transition-approach