It is easy to forget there was a time in our not too distant past where the supply of food was continuously scarce, rationed, and uncertain. During the Second World War and its immediate aftermath, access to basic staples were tightly controlled, with households adapting to a system defined by limits rather than abundance.

In the decades since, that picture has changed dramatically. Through globalisation, technological innovation, and the expansion of international supply chains, our food system has become more abundant, more varied, and, in real terms, more affordable than at any point in modern history. Up until recently, the idea of food shortages had become almost unthinkable – a problem of the past, not the present.

Cracks in the system

In the last ten years, that foundation has been repeatedly shaken. Britain’s vote to leave the EU in 2016 introduced new frictions at borders and across supply chains, while the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted labour markets, logistics and demand patterns. This was followed by the war in Ukraine which sent shockwaves through global grain, fertiliser, and energy markets.

Each of these events exposed the same underlying truth: our food system, while efficient, is also highly dependent on complex, interconnected global networks.

A local story with national lessons

These repeated shocks underlines the importance of thinking differently about resilience. It is against this backdrop that Miller Research and the Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT) were commissioned by the local food partnerships of the Dyfed Powys region to carry out research to help inform the development of a food resilience strategy for the region.

The first half of the project, led by Miller Research, entailed a detailed baseline assessment of the regional food system. This included desk-based analysis of supply and demand, mapping of critical food infrastructure and system actors, and qualitative interviews with stakeholders across the supply chain. CAT led the second half, facilitating two distinct participatory labs, bringing together producers, public sector bodies, community organisations and businesses to test food shock scenarios and co-develop practical responses.

At first glance, Dyfed Powys appears well placed. It is one of the most agriculturally productive regions in Wales, with a strong base in livestock and primary production. But the research reveals a more nuanced reality. Much of what is produced locally leaves the region, flowing into long supply chains, while local communities remain reliant on food sourced from elsewhere. At the same time, horticultural production is limited, affordability challenges persist in some areas, and formal emergency food planning has been underdeveloped. In other words, despite its strengths, the local system remains exposed to the same external shocks seen at the global level.

These findings highlights the need to rebalance the system: to strengthen local supply chains, invest in infrastructure, improve coordination, and build stronger connections between producers, communities, and institutions.

A timely reminder as we look ahead

As the project has drawn to a close, events in the Strait of Hormuz have offered a timely reminder of just how quickly disruption can ripple through the system. As a key route for energy and fertiliser, instability there has direct implications for food production and costs worldwide. This only serves to reinforce the project’s central message – resilience cannot be taken for granted.

The task ahead is clear – to build a food system that can withstand the shocks of the future. Because the real question is no longer whether disruption will come, but how well prepared we are when it does.

To find out more about the project, its findings, and next steps, please click on the link below or contact Tom Bajjada at tom@miller-research.co.uk.

Learn more about the Dyfed Powys Civil Food Resilience Project